WHYSTON
Commercial due diligence example

Project Meridian Commercial Due Diligence

A 30-slide commercial due diligence for a private-equity investment committee weighing a 60% stake in a Saudi and UAE hotel platform.

Prepared for
Investment committee of a global private-equity fund
Length
30 slides
Made with
Whyston, exported to PowerPoint
Slide 5: Advance diligence on $182M EBITDA; management's full plan is not yet supported
Slide 5Advance diligence on $182M EBITDA; management's full plan is not yet supported
Slide 2: Executive summary
Slide 2Executive summary
Slide 10: Saudi hotel occupancy fell 2.2 pp year-on-year
Slide 10Saudi hotel occupancy fell 2.2 pp year-on-year
Slide 24: ADR downside cuts EBITDA by $33M; sensitivities are not additive
Slide 24ADR downside cuts EBITDA by $33M; sensitivities are not additive
Slide 25: Provisional scenarios span $160M–$205M; the base carries an 11.2% haircut
Slide 25Provisional scenarios span $160M–$205M; the base carries an 11.2% haircut

The brief, and what to look at

The brief

An investment committee asked whether management’s $205M EBITDA plan for a 14-hotel, 3,900-key platform holds up, using official tourism and hotel statistics plus the target’s own figures.

What to look at

  • A verdict table up front: each diligence question answered “supported”, “partially supported” or “not supported”.
  • The plan is haircut to a provisional $182M case instead of being repeated, with the reasons shown.
  • A tornado chart and three scenarios make clear which assumptions move EBITDA most.

The executive summary

Written in SCQA order: the situation, what complicates it, the answer, then the pillars the rest of the deck proves.

Situation

Meridian spans 14 hotels and 3,900 keys across Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Saudi inbound overnight trips reached 27.4M in 2023; tourism expansion has policy support.

Complication

Management targets $205M EBITDA despite pricing pressure and an unresolved operating baseline

Answer

Advance conditional diligence using $182M FY2030 EBITDA as a provisional case, not the $205M plan

Supporting pillars
  1. Structural demand supports expansion, but 150M tourists remains a policy ambition
  2. Saudi performance challenges uninterrupted 9% RevPAR growth
  3. UAE exposure equals 26.9% of keys, not half the portfolio
  4. Destination coverage does not establish a defensible competitive advantage
  5. A provisional $182M EBITDA case requires operating and funding reconciliation

The storyline, title by title

Every slide title in the deck, in order. Each one is a full-sentence claim, so the titles alone tell the story.

  1. Demand and Capture

    Realized overnight demand supports the opportunity. Policy targets and guest growth do not establish luxury room-night capture or pricing.

    1. Advance diligence on $182M EBITDA; management's full plan is not yet supported
    2. Saudi overnight trips grew 11.8% annually through 2023; 2024 remains unverified
    3. 150M tourists is policy ambition, not guaranteed luxury-hotel demand
    4. Saudi domestic guests represent 44%; resilience requires booking-level evidence

  2. Pricing and Supply

    National occupancy and regional hotel pricing weaken the scarcity argument. Underwriting needs matched property and competitor evidence.

    1. Saudi hotel occupancy fell 2.2 pp year-on-year
    2. Riyadh hotel occupancy and ADR imply 40.0% lower RevPAR
    3. City ADR differs materially; luxury positioning remains unproven

  3. Exposure and Recovery

    Physical exposure can be measured; earnings exposure cannot yet be allocated. Peer disruption signals do not establish Meridian's recovery path.

    1. UAE represents 26.9% of keys, not half
    2. Accor flags UAE disruption; Q1 2027 recovery remains unproven
    3. Urban destinations require distinct booking and resilience tests

  4. Competitive Defensibility

    Locations may create opportunity, but contracts, distribution economics and relative performance determine whether that opportunity is defensible.

    1. Destination coverage does not establish a brand or distribution moat
    2. Red Sea expansion concentrates 800 keys in an unproven resort proposition

  5. Underwriting and Gates

    The baseline needs reconciliation before growth is compounded. Scenario endpoints remain provisional until their operating assumptions and cash requirements are explicit.

    1. FY2025 rooms revenue shows a $28.8M reconciliation gap
    2. 9% annual RevPAR growth requires pricing or mix—not occupancy alone
    3. Accept demand direction; haircut growth and condition recovery, openings and costs
    4. ADR downside cuts EBITDA by $33M; sensitivities are not additive
    5. Provisional scenarios span $160M–$205M; the base carries an 11.2% haircut
    6. Condition the 60% investment on reconciled earnings, funded delivery and proven commercial advantages
    7. Condition the 60% investment on reconciled earnings and funded delivery

The company at the centre of this deck is fictional, and figures marked illustrative in the deck are made up for the example. Public figures come from the sources listed on the deck’s Figures & Assumptions pages, which Whyston adds to every deck.

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